Regionals

[blackwardynasty9]

This is a little late, I was OK, i just didn't have it in the head, congrats to everyone who ran in the State meet and who didn't.

[runningman]

Well it starts again...any predictions?

[CoachSpongeBob]

1A - SC Girls win - both qualify

2A - FSK boys win, Century girls win, all carroll teams qualify

[l2mmcoach]

don't stop now! what about 4A north? no luv 4 Westminster or NC?

[CoachSpongeBob]

Well, I stopped there cause they are much easier picks, and I know so much less about 4A North. Really, i just felt the ones I made aren't really much of predictions. The biggest "prediction" I made was Century winning, and they are still likely to win.

For 4a, I will have to look into it some, but for the boys, I think both boys team will make it, but I don't know nothing about the girls teams in that region to know how good the teams NC and Westminster will face are, I know a little more about the boys.

I am not big on predictions unless I feel pretty comfortable/confident about them - as I do for 2a West and 1A South. In those unless their are injuries, I think all the county teams (as well as a few other teams - Middletown, Walkersville boys, Glenelg) are pretty safe

[CoachSpongeBob]

4A North

Here is my best attempt to take a look at the 4A North Region Meet.

Kenwood boys and girls are incomplete. Parkville Girls are incomplete. Southwestern and Walbrook have incomplete boys and girls teams. That means there is 9 complete boys teams and 8 complete girls teams. As a result, 5 boys teams will qualify for states and 4 girls teams will qualify for states.

Here is how the 4a North teams did at the Baltimore County Championships and the MVAL Championships (Note: Only complete team in 4a North in on of these two meets is C. Milton Wright):

Boys 5k Baltimore County Champs

1	Sumanth Kuppali	12	Perry Hall	16:19.9
4	Corey Hanc ock	11	Dulaney	17:07.8
10	Charlie Larsen	12	Dulaney	17:22.8
12	Bill King	11	Dulaney	17:27.5
13	Nick Poremski	12	Parkville	17:33.5
27	Buck Shipley	10	Dulaney	18:13.2
28	Chris Mulgraine	12	Woodlawn	18:14.2
33	Jay Souder	10	Dulaney	18:25.6
34	Hal McVeigh	10	Dulaney	18:26.1
37	Tom Roche	12	Perry Hall	18:30.6
38	Max Erdman	12	Parkville	18:31.1
43	John Bullough	12	Dulaney	18:38.5
50	Matthew Taylor	9	Perry Hall	19:25.1
51	Tim Geeson	11	Parkville	19:25.7
54	Chris Thompson	12	Perry Hall	19:36.0
55	R. Scott Guenther	9	Perry Hall	19:49.6
65	Derrick Williams	11	Woodlawn	20:31.0
66	Kahil Simmonds	12	Kenwood	20:50.2
73	Matthew Stankiewicz	12	Parkville	21:20.7
74	Ryan James	9	Parkville	21:22.8
75	Gary Klado	11	Perry Hall	21:24.4
76	Donovan Weddington	11	Woodlawn	21:25.1
81	Alex Sirota	10	Parkville	21:42.2
90	Anthony Hughes	9	Woodlawn	22:46.4
92	Mark Anderson	12	Kenwood	22:57.0
98	Charles Doughty		Woodlawn	24:46.8

Boys MVAL Championships

2	Wilkins, Michael	12	Westminster	17:33.0
4	Jones, Tim		Linganore	17:42.0
5	Libdan, Chrsitian	12	Westminster	17:46.0
6	Jones, Roy		Linganore	17:48.0
7	Shatto, Scott	11	Thomas Johnson	17:50.0
8	Ebert-Zavos, Ben	11	Thomas Johnson	17:53.0
9	Edland, Andrew	11	Thomas Johnson	17:54.0
11	Soloman, Andrew	12	Westminster	17:57.0
12	Mathers, Dustin		North Carroll	18:06.0
13	Taylor, Ryan	10	Westminster	18:13.0
15	Rudy, Adam		Linganore	18:16.9
16	Dietz, Keith		North Carroll	18:18.0
19	Cantor, Andrew	11	Thomas Johnson	18:25.0
21	Perrota, Robert		Linganore	18:33.0
22	Cortez, Jose	9	Westminster	18:37.0
23	Healy, Matt	10	Thomas Johnson	18:41.0
24	Novotny, Lyndon		Linganore	18:46.0
25	Nicewarmer, Steve	11	Thomas Johnson	18:50.0
26	Pagels, Robby		North Carroll	18:53.0
27	Albright, Jesse		North Carroll	18:58.0
28	Bucacink, Ian	11	Westminster	19:00.0
29	Elbert, Nate		Linganore	19:03.0
31	Mersinger, Kenny	12	Westminster	19:09.0
32	Unglesbee, Alex		North Carroll	19:22.0
33	Gutkosha, Joey		North Carroll	19:24.0
34	Edland, Sam	10	Thomas Johnson	19:25.0
35	Luecke, Jon		Linganore	19:27.0
37	Blackiston, Kyle		North Carroll	20:03.0

Girls Baltimore County Champs

2	Emma Larkin	12	Dulaney	19:21.7
4	Anjelica DiNucci	12	Dulaney	19:46.6
5	Kelly Rush	12	Dulaney	19:57.0
7	Chelsey Bush	10	Dulaney	20:16.7
12	Katie Cox	9	Dulaney	20:44.2
15	Jennifer Sanchez	11	Dulaney	21:13.8
17	Jennifer Bae	11	Dulaney	21:34.8
26	Katie Lehew	11	Perry Hall	22:49.5
47	Meghan Najewicz	11	Perry Hall	24:31.7
51	Raquel Pederson	11	Parkville	24:58.2
53	Monet Patterson	11	Perry Hall	25:37.0
55	Bryanna London	11	Perry Hall	25:52.2
58	Elisha Hawkins	9	Woodlawn	26:30.2
61	Rebecca Klado	9	Perry Hall	26:43.3
62	Shannon Davis	11	Woodlawn	26:57.1
64	Roshawn Harrington		Woodlawn	27:09.2
70	Grace Nyambura	12	Kenwood	28:50.5
71	Jenna Jacobs	12	Parkville	28:57.6
72	Rachel Klado	12	Perry Hall	29:01.3
73	Renee Ross		Woodlawn	29:37.9
74	Andrea Bolling		Woodlawn	29:57.2
75	Lauren Seager	11	Kenwood	31:45.6

Girls MVAL Championships

1	Maczis, Melissa	12	Linganore	20:38.0
4	Nolan, Bridgett	10	Linganore	21:11.7
5	Thompson, Ali	11	Westminster	21:20.0
6	Donovan, Molly	12	North Carroll	21:23.0
7	Luttrell, Kristin	10	Thomas Johnson	21:24.0
9	Eaton, Allison	12	Westminster	21:46.0
10	Plombon, Savanna	9	Thomas Johnson	21:47.0
12	Igo, Kelsey	10	Thomas Johnson	22:00.0
13	Manion, Erin	12	Linganore	22:04.0
14	Shafer, Aimee	12	Thomas Johnson	22:07.0
15	Brown, Jenna	12	Westminster	22:12.0
17	Pulley, Rachel	12	Linganore	22:16.3
18	Haddaway, Casey	11	Westminster	22:16.8
19	Bryan, Stephanie	10	Thomas Johnson	22:20.0
20	Donoghue, Jenny	11	Thomas Johnson	22:23.0
22	Caudle, Amanda	11	Thomas Johnson	22:50.0
23	Gula, Heather	11	Linganore	23:15.0
24	Kitzmiller, Ashley	9	North Carroll	23:19.0
26	Cyhanick, Megan	11	Westminster	23:53.0
27	Junkin, Vanessa	12	North Carroll	24:04.0
28	Laird, Erin	12	Westminster	24:10.0
29	Windsor, Kara	12	North Carroll	24:36.0
31	Norton, Bridget	12	North Carroll	24:55.0
32	Emmerich, Julian	11	Linganore	24:58.0
36	Frances, Colleen	12	North Carroll	25:42.0
37	Hand, Sara	9	Linganore	25:46.0
38	Spencer, Taylor	10	North Carroll	26:27.0

[CoachSpongeBob]

C. Milton Wright, Westminster, Woodlawn, North Carroll, Perry Hall and Dulaney all competed at Bull Run, and the following is those teams pulled out of the results. These teams plus Linganore and TJ seem to be the top best teams in the region. So this could show how each of the teams may compare to each other.

Boys Bull Run

1	Summanth Kuppalli	PERRY HALL	17:11
2	Bill King	DULANEY	17:50
3	Steve Otradovec	C. MILTON WRIGHT	17:51
4	Corey Hanc ock	DULANEY	17:55
5	Michael Wilkins	WESTMINSTER	18:03
6	Charlie Larsen	DULANEY	18:05
7	Paul Otradovec	C. MILTON WRIGHT	18:06
8	Alex Kammerer	C. MILTON WRIGHT	18:18
9	Jason Thompson	C. MILTON WRIGHT	18:19
10	Nick Baxter	C. MILTON WRIGHT	18:28
11	Keith Dietz	NORTH CARROLL	18:33
12	Dustin Mathers	NORTH CARROLL	18:37
13	Christian Libdan	WESTMINSTER	18:39
14	Mike Devanzo	PERRY HALL	18:43
15	Buck Shipley	DULANEY	18:46
16	Ryan Taylor	WESTMINSTER	18:50
17	Jay Souder	DULANEY	18:53
18	Robert Pagels	NORTH CARROLL	18:54
19	Jose Cortez	WESTMINSTER	18:58
20	Ian Bucacink	WESTMINSTER	19:00
21	Christopher Mulrain	WOODLAWN	19:06
22	Andrew Solomon	WESTMINSTER	19:07
23	Scott Wheeler	C. MILTON WRIGHT	19:12
24	John Bullough	DULANEY	19:24
25	Kenny Mersinger	WESTMINSTER	19:37
26	Alex Ungleabee	NORTH CARROLL	19:39
27	Tony Petrosillo	DULANEY	20:02
28	Chris Thompson	PERRY HALL	20:06
29	Tom Roche	PERRY HALL	20:09
30	Gary Klado	PERRY HALL	20:12
31	Kyle Blackston	NORTH CARROLL	20:24
32	Kevin Somers	NORTH CARROLL	20:25
33	Shawn Stevig	NORTH CARROLL	20:49
34	Donavon Weddington	WOODLAWN	21:38
35	Derrick Williams	WOODLAWN	22:19
36	Anthony Hughes	WOODLAWN	24:51

Team Scores

C. Milton Wright	37
Dulaney	44
Westminster	73
North Carroll	96
Perry Hall	99

Girls Bull Run

1	Emma Larkin	DULANEY	20:35
2	Sarah Bailey	C. MILTON WRIGHT	20:38
3	Kelly Rush	DULANEY	20:41
4	Anjelica Dinucci	DULANEY	20:48
5	Lindsay Smith	C. MILTON WRIGHT	20:50
6	Erica Scripa	C. MILTON WRIGHT	20:51
7	Chelsey Bush	DULANEY	21:04
8	Shannon Rafferty	C. MILTON WRIGHT	21:06
9	Justine Digregorio	PERRY HALL	21:14
10	Molly Donovan	NORTH CARROLL	21:15
11	Hannah McKenzie	C. MILTON WRIGHT	21:59
12	Ali Thompson	WESTMINSTER	21:59
13	Whitney Hora	C. MILTON WRIGHT	22:18
14	Hannah Faughn	DULANEY	22:28
15	Jenna Brown	WESTMINSTER	22:33
16	Dana Garner	C. MILTON WRIGHT	23:50
17	Casey Haddaway	WESTMINSTER	24:05
18	Kathy Lehew	PERRY HALL	24:36
19	Vanessa Junkin	NORTH CARROLL	24:43
20	Erin Laird	WESTMINSTER	24:45
21	Taylor Morgan	WESTMINSTER	25:03
22	Bridget Norton	NORTH CARROLL	25:07
23	Ashley Kitzmiller	NORTH CARROLL	25:08
24	Steph Shugars	WESTMINSTER	25:11
25	Kara Windsor	NORTH CARROLL	25:20
26	Colleen Frances	NORTH CARROLL	25:23
27	Jennifer Bae	DULANEY	25:25
28	Monet Patterson	PERRY HALL	26:18
29	Marissa Fulton	WESTMINSTER	26:31
30	Maghan Najewicz	PERRY HALL	26:39
31	Lauryn Tiberi	NORTH CARROLL	27:03
32	Bryanna London	PERRY HALL	28:35

Team Scores

Dulaney	29
C. Milton Wright	32
Westminster	85
North Carroll	99
Perry Hall	117

[CoachSpongeBob]

So now my attempt to combine the runners to see where teams may land. Impossible to do, but this is what I did. I looked at Bull Run, and compared athletes at Bull Run from their times at MVALs and Baltimore County Champs. It seems to me that both MVAls and Baltimore County Champs have times that were similar (runners at Balt County ran about 45 seconds faster then at Bull Run, runners at MVALs ran about 45 seconds faster then at Bull Run – not a science, this is a rough estimate). So I combined Balt County and MVALs since the times seem to match, then took 45 seconds from the C. Milton Wright times to add them (as well as add a couple athletes that did not run at MVALs/Balt County Champs). Now, races are won on the course, not on paper, I am only doing this to see if we could get a “guess” at where teams may be compared to each other. I am not into making too many predictions.


Boys

1	Sumanth Kuppali	12	Perry Hall	16:19.9
2	Pete Houlihan		C. Milton Wright	17:00.0
3	Corey Hanc ock	11	Dulaney	17:07.8
4	Steve Otradovec		C. Milton Wright	17:15.0
5	Charlie Larsen	12	Dulaney	17:22.8
6	Bill King	11	Dulaney	17:27.5
7	Paul Otradovec		C. Milton Wright	17:20.0
8	Wilkins, Michael	12	Westminster	17:33.0
9	Nick Poremski	12	Parkville	17:33.5
10	Alex Kammerer		C. Milton Wright	17:41.0
11	Jones, Tim		Linganore	17:42.0
12	Jason Thompson		C. Milton Wright	17:42.0
13	Libdan, Chrsitian	12	Westminster	17:46.0
14	Jones, Roy		Linganore	17:48.0
15	Shatto, Scott	11	Thomas Johnson	17:50.0
16	Nick Baxter		C. Milton Wright	17:51.0
17	Ebert-Zavos, Ben	11	Thomas Johnson	17:53.0
18	Edland, Andrew	11	Thomas Johnson	17:54.0
19	Soloman, Andrew	12	Westminster	17:57.0
20	Mike Devanzo		Perry Hall	17:58.0
21	Mathers, Dustin		North Carroll	18:06.0
22	Taylor, Ryan	10	Westminster	18:13.0
23	Buck Shipley	10	Dulaney	18:13.2
24	Chris Mulgraine	12	Woodlawn	18:14.2
25	Rudy, Adam		Linganore	18:16.9
26	Dietz, Keith		North Carroll	18:18.0
27	Scott Wheeler		C. Milton Wright	18:20.0
28	Cantor, Andrew	11	Thomas Johnson	18:25.0
29	Jay Souder	10	Dulaney	18:25.6
30	Hal McVeigh	10	Dulaney	18:26.1
31	Tom Roche	12	Perry Hall	18:30.6
32	Max Erdman	12	Parkville	18:31.1
33	Perrota, Robert		Linganore	18:33.0
34	Cortez, Jose	9	Westminster	18:37.0
35	John Bullough	12	Dulaney	18:38.5
36	Healy, Matt	10	Thomas Johnson	18:41.0
37	Novotny, Lyndon		Linganore	18:46.0
38	Nicewarmer, Steve	11	Thomas Johnson	18:50.0
39	Pagels, Robby		North Carroll	18:53.0
40	Albright, Jesse		North Carroll	18:58.0
41	Bucacink, Ian	11	Westminster	19:00.0
42	Elbert, Nate		Linganore	19:03.0
43	Mersinger, Kenny	12	Westminster	19:09.0
44	Unglesbee, Alex		North Carroll	19:22.0
45	Gutkosha, Joey		North Carroll	19:24.0
46	Edland, Sam	10	Thomas Johnson	19:25.0
47	Matthew Taylor	9	Perry Hall	19:25.1
48	Tim Geeson	11	Parkville	19:25.7
49	Luecke, Jon		Linganore	19:27.0
50	Chris Thompson	12	Perry Hall	19:36.0
51	R. Scott Guenther	9	Perry Hall	19:49.6
52	Blackiston, Kyle		North Carroll	20:03.0
53	Derrick Williams	11	Woodlawn	20:31.0
54	Kahil Simmonds	12	Kenwood	20:50.2
55	Matthew Stankiewicz	12	Parkville	21:20.7
56	Ryan James	9	Parkville	21:22.8
57	Gary Klado	11	Perry Hall	21:24.4
58	Donovan Weddington	11	Woodlawn	21:25.1
59	Alex Sirota	10	Parkville	21:42.2
60	Anthony Hughes	9	Woodlawn	22:46.4
61	Mark Anderson	12	Kenwood	22:57.0
62	Charles Doughty		Woodlawn	24:46.8

Team Scores

1)	C. Milton Wright	35
2)	Dulaney	66
3)	Westminster	96
4)	TJ	114
5)	Linganore	120
6)	Perry Hall	149
7)	NC	170
8)	Parkville	198
9)	Woodlawn	253

This is obviously not exactly right, but I tried. I think the one thing it does tell us is that NC would need to beat TJ or Linganore to qualify for states. I think the top 5 teams have looked pretty solid all year. If 62 runners ran in the region, then there would be 16 individual qualifiers. Maybe they would reach 17, but there would not be likely more then that.

Girls

1	Emma Larkin	12	Dulaney	19:21.7
2	Sarah Baily		C. Milton Wright	19:40.0
3	Anjelica DiNucci	12	Dulaney	19:46.6
4	Kelly Rush	12	Dulaney	19:57.0
5	Lindsay Smith		C. Milton Wright	20:00.0
6	Erica Scripa		C. Milton Wright	20:01.0
7	Chelsey Bush	10	Dulaney	20:16.7
8	Shannon Rafferty		C. Milton Wright	20:19.0
9	Maczis, Melissa	12	Linganore	20:38.0
10	Katie Cox	9	Dulaney	20:44.2
11	Nolan, Bridgett	10	Linganore	21:11.7
12	Hannah McKenzie		C. Milton Wright	21:12.0
13	Jennifer Sanchez	11	Dulaney	21:13.8
14	Thompson, Ali	11	Westminster	21:20.0
15	Donovan, Molly	12	North Carroll	21:23.0
16	Luttrell, Kristin	10	Thomas Johnson	21:24.0
17	Whitney Hora		C. Milton Wright	21:33.0
18	Jennifer Bae	11	Dulaney	21:34.8
19	Eaton, Allison	12	Westminster	21:46.0
20	Plombon, Savanna	9	Thomas Johnson	21:47.0
21	Igo, Kelsey	10	Thomas Johnson	22:00.0
22	Manion, Erin	12	Linganore	22:04.0
23	Shafer, Aimee	12	Thomas Johnson	22:07.0
24	Brown, Jenna	12	Westminster	22:12.0
25	Pulley, Rachel	12	Linganore	22:16.3
26	Haddaway, Casey	11	Westminster	22:16.8
27	Bryan, Stephanie	10	Thomas Johnson	22:20.0
28	Donoghue, Jenny	11	Thomas Johnson	22:23.0
29	Katie Lehew	11	Perry Hall	22:49.5
30	Caudle, Amanda	11	Thomas Johnson	22:50.0
31	Dana Garner		C. Milton Wright	23:00.0
32	Gula, Heather	11	Linganore	23:15.0
33	Kitzmiller, Ashley	9	North Carroll	23:19.0
34	Cyhanick, Megan	11	Westminster	23:53.0
35	Junkin, Vanessa	12	North Carroll	24:04.0
36	Laird, Erin	12	Westminster	24:10.0
37	Meghan Najewicz	11	Perry Hall	24:31.7
38	Windsor, Kara	12	North Carroll	24:36.0
39	Norton, Bridget	12	North Carroll	24:55.0
40	Emmerich, Julian	11	Linganore	24:58.0
41	Raquel Pederson	11	Parkville	24:58.2
42	Monet Patterson	11	Perry Hall	25:37.0
43	Frances, Colleen	12	North Carroll	25:42.0
44	Hand, Sara	9	Linganore	25:46.0
45	Bryanna London	11	Perry Hall	25:52.2
46	Spencer, Taylor	10	North Carroll	26:27.0
47	Elisha Hawkins	9	Woodlawn	26:30.2
48	Rebecca Klado	9	Perry Hall	26:43.3
49	Shannon Davis	11	Woodlawn	26:57.1
50	Roshawn Harrington		Woodlawn	27:09.2
51	Grace Nyambura	12	Kenwood	28:50.5
52	Jenna Jacobs	12	Parkville	28:57.6
53	Rachel Klado	12	Perry Hall	29:01.3
54	Renee Ross		Woodlawn	29:37.9
55	Andrea Bolling		Woodlawn	29:57.2
56	Lauren Seager	11	Kenwood	31:45.6

Team Scores

1)	Dulaney	25
2)	C. Milton Wright	33
3)	Linganore	99
4)	TJ	107
5)	Westminster	117
6)	North Carroll	160
7)	Perry Hall	198
8)	Woodlawn	246

With the girls, both Dulaney and C. Milton Wright seem to be clearly the top 2 teams. It seems that in order for Westminster and/or NC to qualify for states they would have to beat Linganore and/or TJ. It seems that the minimum of only 15 athletes will qualify (for 60 or less runners that finish at regionals, 15 athletes qualify, for 61 to 64 then 16 athletes would qualify).

[nsnyder]

We got an e-mail saying that there are 11 boys teams and 10 girls teams. Based on that there will be 6 boys teams and 5 girls teams to qualify. Coach Boyle seems to do a good job at getting all the Balt. Co. teams to scrap together complete teams for regionals.

[l2mmcoach]

not too impressed by Dulaney boys at B-Co meet. I think Westminster has a decent shot at 1st or 2nd.

[CoachSpongeBob]

No offense to Westminster, but CMW is awful strong. And Dulaney will be tough too, their top 3 are pretty good, and could very well put all 3 in before Westminster's #1 - obviously that pack will stay tight, and if Wilkins can put himself into Dulaney's top 3 it will go a long ways.

[chs]

Does anyone have the Varsity Boys and Girls times for 2A west??

[rwilhelm]

2A West- 2:00 p.m. girls, 2:40 p.m. boys...